Latest QRF Calculations
March 2, 2020
Every section final in Class 9-Player through AAAAA, plus the Class AAAAAA Round of 16, Nov. 5–6. Each preview covers the matchup, head-to-head history back to 2002, common opponents and results against teams still playing.
Every game includes:
• QRF Gap & favorite, from our QRF Gap Analytics
• QRF Profile: record vs. Top 10/Top 20, Strength of Schedule and Strength of Victory
• QRF Gap & favorite, from our QRF Gap Analytics
• QRF Profile: record vs. Top 10/Top 20, Strength of Schedule and Strength of Victory
Closest games by QRF (favorite):
• 4AAA: Minneapolis Camden at St. Croix Lutheran – Camden 51.0%
• AAAAAA: Minnetonka at Blaine – Blaine 56.0%
• 2AAAA: Marshall at Willmar – Willmar 57.0%
• 4AAA: Minneapolis Camden at St. Croix Lutheran – Camden 51.0%
• AAAAAA: Minnetonka at Blaine – Blaine 56.0%
• 2AAAA: Marshall at Willmar – Willmar 57.0%
Soccer State Semifinal Previews: Boys & Girls
All 12 state semifinals at U.S. Bank Stadium. The boys play Wednesday, Nov. 4, and the girls play Thursday, Nov. 5, in Class A, AA and AAA. Each preview covers the matchup, head-to-head history, common opponents and recent state tournament runs.
Every game includes:
• QRF Gap & favorite, from our QRF Gap Analytics
• QRF Profile: record vs. Top 10/Top 20, Strength of Schedule, Strength of Victory and one-goal games
• QRF Gap & favorite, from our QRF Gap Analytics
• QRF Profile: record vs. Top 10/Top 20, Strength of Schedule, Strength of Victory and one-goal games
Closest games by QRF (favorite):
• Boys AA: Winona vs. Blake – Blake 56.5%
• Boys A: Breck vs. St. Croix Prep – St. Croix Prep 57.3%
• Girls AAA: Duluth East vs. Eagan – Eagan 60.7%
• Boys AA: Winona vs. Blake – Blake 56.5%
• Boys A: Breck vs. St. Croix Prep – St. Croix Prep 57.3%
• Girls AAA: Duluth East vs. Eagan – Eagan 60.7%
NEW FEATURE!!! QRF Gap Analytics
How to Read the QRF Gap
Favorite = the team with the higher QRF
QRF Gap = (Favorite’s QRF − Opponent’s QRF) ÷ Favorite’s QRF
Example: Favorite 141.7 vs. Opponent 126.4
141.7 − 126.4 = 15.3
15.3 ÷ 141.7 = 10.8% → use the 5–15% row
Ties count as half a win.
QRF Gap = (Favorite’s QRF − Opponent’s QRF) ÷ Favorite’s QRF
Example: Favorite 141.7 vs. Opponent 126.4
141.7 − 126.4 = 15.3
15.3 ÷ 141.7 = 10.8% → use the 5–15% row
Ties count as half a win.
Games played through 11/1/2026, including section playoffs
How Often the Favorite Wins
| QRF Gap | Football | Volleyball | Soccer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5% | 52% 28-26 |
51% 212-203-1 |
56% 106-78-36 |
| 5–15% | 71% 110-45 |
68% 596-283-1 |
65% 301-138-100 |
| 15–25% | 80% 155-39 |
83% 787-157-0 |
79% 405-80-75 |
| 25–35% | 89% 185-23 |
92% 815-67-0 |
87% 455-45-59 |
| 35%+ | 99% 976-8 |
98% 1,959-41-1 |
97% 1,318-14-64 |
| All Games | 91% 1,454-141 |
85% 4,369-751-3 |
84% 2,585-355-334 |
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