Latest QRF Calculations
March 2, 2020
All 16 state quarterfinals at Grand Casino Arena get a full preview, with series history back to 2004 and each team’s state tournament history. Class AAA and AAAA open Wednesday, Nov. 11, and Class A and AA play Thursday, Nov. 12.
Every preview includes:
• QRF Gap & favorite, from our QRF Gap Analytics
• Previous meetings this season, with set scores
• QRF Profile: record vs. Top 10/Top 20, Strength of Schedule, Strength of Victory, best-of-five record, set record and sweeps (plus vs. Top 40 in Class A and AA)
• QRF Gap & favorite, from our QRF Gap Analytics
• Previous meetings this season, with set scores
• QRF Profile: record vs. Top 10/Top 20, Strength of Schedule, Strength of Victory, best-of-five record, set record and sweeps (plus vs. Top 40 in Class A and AA)
Closest quarterfinals by QRF (favorite):
• AAA: Stewartville vs. Cretin-Derham Hall – Cretin-Derham Hall 62.0%
• A: Chisholm vs. Sacred Heart – Sacred Heart 62.4%
• AA: Dover-Eyota vs. New London-Spicer – New London-Spicer 63.0%
• AAAA: Roseville vs. Apple Valley – Roseville 65.5%
• AAA: Stewartville vs. Cretin-Derham Hall – Cretin-Derham Hall 62.0%
• A: Chisholm vs. Sacred Heart – Sacred Heart 62.4%
• AA: Dover-Eyota vs. New London-Spicer – New London-Spicer 63.0%
• AAAA: Roseville vs. Apple Valley – Roseville 65.5%
Rematches from last year’s state tournament:
• A: Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa vs. Mayer Lutheran (2025 semifinal)
• AAA: Stewartville vs. Cretin-Derham Hall (third straight year at state)
• AAAA: Roseville vs. Apple Valley (2025 third-place match)
• A: Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa vs. Mayer Lutheran (2025 semifinal)
• AAA: Stewartville vs. Cretin-Derham Hall (third straight year at state)
• AAAA: Roseville vs. Apple Valley (2025 third-place match)
How do the 32 state tournament teams really stack up? The Nitty Gritty Report puts each class side by side: QRF and class rank, strength of schedule, head-to-head results, records against Top 10 and Top 25 teams, records against higher, similar and lower QRF opponents, set records, and every match sorted by opponent QRF.
The state tournament field is set in all seven classes. Every quarterfinal gets a full preview with the QRF Gap and favorite, previous meetings, series and state tournament history, common opponents and a side-by-side QRF Profile. Games run Thursday through Saturday, Nov. 12–14.
Closest quarterfinals by QRF (favorite):
• AAA: Annandale vs. Dilworth-Glyndon-Felton – DGF 50.6%
• A: Park Christian vs. Upsala/Swanville Area – Upsala/Swanville 52.7%
• AA: Jackson County Central vs. Waterville-Elysian-Morristown – JCC 52.7%
• AAAAAA: Centennial vs. Shakopee – Shakopee 53.9%
• AAA: Albany vs. Pierz – Albany 54.5%
• AAA: Annandale vs. Dilworth-Glyndon-Felton – DGF 50.6%
• A: Park Christian vs. Upsala/Swanville Area – Upsala/Swanville 52.7%
• AA: Jackson County Central vs. Waterville-Elysian-Morristown – JCC 52.7%
• AAAAAA: Centennial vs. Shakopee – Shakopee 53.9%
• AAA: Albany vs. Pierz – Albany 54.5%
Worth watching:
• 9-Player: Wabasso vs. Border West – the top two teams in the 9-Player QRF, both unbeaten
• A: Mayer Lutheran vs. Minneota – a rematch of the 2021 title game
• AAAAAA: Prior Lake vs. Rosemount – Rosemount won 15-14 in September
• 9-Player: Wabasso vs. Border West – the top two teams in the 9-Player QRF, both unbeaten
• A: Mayer Lutheran vs. Minneota – a rematch of the 2021 title game
• AAAAAA: Prior Lake vs. Rosemount – Rosemount won 15-14 in September
NEW FEATURE!!! QRF Gap Analytics
How to Read the QRF Gap
Favorite = the team with the higher QRF
QRF Gap = (Favorite’s QRF − Opponent’s QRF) ÷ Favorite’s QRF
Example: Favorite 141.7 vs. Opponent 126.4
141.7 − 126.4 = 15.3
15.3 ÷ 141.7 = 10.8% → use the 5–15% row
Ties count as half a win.
QRF Gap = (Favorite’s QRF − Opponent’s QRF) ÷ Favorite’s QRF
Example: Favorite 141.7 vs. Opponent 126.4
141.7 − 126.4 = 15.3
15.3 ÷ 141.7 = 10.8% → use the 5–15% row
Ties count as half a win.
Games played through 11/1/2026, including section playoffs
How Often the Favorite Wins
| QRF Gap | Football | Volleyball | Soccer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5% | 52% 28-26 |
51% 212-203-1 |
56% 106-78-36 |
| 5–15% | 71% 110-45 |
68% 596-283-1 |
65% 301-138-100 |
| 15–25% | 80% 155-39 |
83% 787-157-0 |
79% 405-80-75 |
| 25–35% | 89% 185-23 |
92% 815-67-0 |
87% 455-45-59 |
| 35%+ | 99% 976-8 |
98% 1,959-41-1 |
97% 1,318-14-64 |
| All Games | 91% 1,454-141 |
85% 4,369-751-3 |
84% 2,585-355-334 |
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