Latest QRF Calculations
March 2, 2020
Every section final in Class 9-Player through AAAAA is done, and Class AAAAAA is down to eight. All 48 section champions and the eight AAAAAA quarterfinalists get a write-up with their series history, state tournament history and a Season at a Glance table built from the new QRF.
Friday’s biggest results:
• AAAAAA: Prior Lake 19, Moorhead 14 – the top team in the AAAAAA QRF is out
• 1AAA: Zumbrota-Mazeppa 8, Pine Island 7
• 2AAA: Dassel-Cokato 28, Holy Family Catholic 23
• 3AAA: Waseca 28, Tri-City United 24
• 6AAAAA: Spring Lake Park 21, Robbinsdale Armstrong 14
• 8AA: Hawley 42, Pelican Rapids 39
• AAAAAA: Prior Lake 19, Moorhead 14 – the top team in the AAAAAA QRF is out
• 1AAA: Zumbrota-Mazeppa 8, Pine Island 7
• 2AAA: Dassel-Cokato 28, Holy Family Catholic 23
• 3AAA: Waseca 28, Tri-City United 24
• 6AAAAA: Spring Lake Park 21, Robbinsdale Armstrong 14
• 8AA: Hawley 42, Pelican Rapids 39
Class AAAAAA quarterfinals:
• Forest Lake vs. Champlin Park – Thu., Nov. 12
• Prior Lake vs. Rosemount – Thu., Nov. 12
• Lakeville South vs. Minnetonka – Thu., Nov. 12
• Centennial vs. Shakopee – Fri., Nov. 13
• Forest Lake vs. Champlin Park – Thu., Nov. 12
• Prior Lake vs. Rosemount – Thu., Nov. 12
• Lakeville South vs. Minnetonka – Thu., Nov. 12
• Centennial vs. Shakopee – Fri., Nov. 13
Soccer State Championship Previews: Boys & Girls
All six state championship games are Saturday, Nov. 7 at U.S. Bank Stadium. Each preview covers the matchup, head-to-head history, the semifinal results and how both teams got here.
Girls championships (QRF favorite):
• AAA, 8:00 AM: Eagan vs. Lakeville North – Lakeville North 67.8%
• AA, 12:30 PM: Holy Angels vs. Blake – Blake 66.1%
• A, 5:00 PM: St. Croix Prep vs. Breck – Breck 68.4%
• AAA, 8:00 AM: Eagan vs. Lakeville North – Lakeville North 67.8%
• AA, 12:30 PM: Holy Angels vs. Blake – Blake 66.1%
• A, 5:00 PM: St. Croix Prep vs. Breck – Breck 68.4%
Boys championships (QRF favorite):
• AAA, 10:15 AM: Edina vs. Wayzata – Wayzata 51.2%
• AA, 2:45 PM: Winona vs. Cretin-Derham Hall – Winona 57.3%
• A, 7:15 PM: St. Croix Prep vs. Holy Angels – Holy Angels 77.4%
• AAA, 10:15 AM: Edina vs. Wayzata – Wayzata 51.2%
• AA, 2:45 PM: Winona vs. Cretin-Derham Hall – Winona 57.3%
• A, 7:15 PM: St. Croix Prep vs. Holy Angels – Holy Angels 77.4%
Every game includes:
• QRF Gap & favorite, from our QRF Gap Analytics
• QRF Profile: record vs. Top 10/Top 20, Strength of Schedule, Strength of Victory and one-goal games
• QRF Gap & favorite, from our QRF Gap Analytics
• QRF Profile: record vs. Top 10/Top 20, Strength of Schedule, Strength of Victory and one-goal games
All 32 girls volleyball sections, updated with the latest results and the new QRF. Eighteen section champions are crowned and headed to state, each with a write-up, including Sacred Heart in 8A on Friday night. The 14 section finals on Saturday get full previews with playoff history.
Every section final includes:
• QRF Gap & favorite, from our QRF Gap Analytics
• Previous meetings this season, with set scores
• QRF Profile: record vs. Top 10/Top 20, Strength of Schedule, Strength of Victory, best-of-five record, set record and sweeps (plus vs. Top 40 in Class A and AA)
• QRF Gap & favorite, from our QRF Gap Analytics
• Previous meetings this season, with set scores
• QRF Profile: record vs. Top 10/Top 20, Strength of Schedule, Strength of Victory, best-of-five record, set record and sweeps (plus vs. Top 40 in Class A and AA)
Closest remaining finals by QRF (favorite):
• 1A: Kenyon-Wanamingo vs. Fillmore Central – Fillmore Central 55.4%
• 1AA: Caledonia vs. Dover-Eyota – Dover-Eyota 56.6%
• 8AA: East Grand Forks vs. Barnesville – Barnesville 60.0%
• 6A: Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa vs. Border West – Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa 60.4%
• 1A: Kenyon-Wanamingo vs. Fillmore Central – Fillmore Central 55.4%
• 1AA: Caledonia vs. Dover-Eyota – Dover-Eyota 56.6%
• 8AA: East Grand Forks vs. Barnesville – Barnesville 60.0%
• 6A: Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa vs. Border West – Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa 60.4%
NEW FEATURE!!! QRF Gap Analytics
How to Read the QRF Gap
Favorite = the team with the higher QRF
QRF Gap = (Favorite’s QRF − Opponent’s QRF) ÷ Favorite’s QRF
Example: Favorite 141.7 vs. Opponent 126.4
141.7 − 126.4 = 15.3
15.3 ÷ 141.7 = 10.8% → use the 5–15% row
Ties count as half a win.
QRF Gap = (Favorite’s QRF − Opponent’s QRF) ÷ Favorite’s QRF
Example: Favorite 141.7 vs. Opponent 126.4
141.7 − 126.4 = 15.3
15.3 ÷ 141.7 = 10.8% → use the 5–15% row
Ties count as half a win.
Games played through 11/1/2026, including section playoffs
How Often the Favorite Wins
| QRF Gap | Football | Volleyball | Soccer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5% | 52% 28-26 |
51% 212-203-1 |
56% 106-78-36 |
| 5–15% | 71% 110-45 |
68% 596-283-1 |
65% 301-138-100 |
| 15–25% | 80% 155-39 |
83% 787-157-0 |
79% 405-80-75 |
| 25–35% | 89% 185-23 |
92% 815-67-0 |
87% 455-45-59 |
| 35%+ | 99% 976-8 |
98% 1,959-41-1 |
97% 1,318-14-64 |
| All Games | 91% 1,454-141 |
85% 4,369-751-3 |
84% 2,585-355-334 |
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